Russia’s new move in Ukraine: `Big storm` about to break out in Toretsk?

Avatar of Eliana By Eliana May21,2024 #Russia #Toretsk #Ukraine
Russia's new move in Ukraine: `Big storm` about to break out in Toretsk? 0
Russia's new move in Ukraine: `Big storm` about to break out in Toretsk? 0

(Dan Tri) – Analysts at ISW believe that the Russian army has slowed down its attack speed and is preparing reserve forces to try to advance from north of Avdiivka to Toretsk.

Ukrainian soldiers in an underground bunker (Illustration: Skynews).

Analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Moscow forces have proactively slowed down their development and are preparing reserve forces to launch a large-scale attack.

On April 30, in the Avdiivka area, for the first time in many days, Russian forces did not carry out any confirmed attacks, while Ukrainian sources said the enemy carried out many attacks in the direction of Russia.

Morning and evening reports on April 30 of the General Staff of Ukraine showed that in just the past day, Kiev forces repelled 47 Russian attacks in  Avdiivka and 57 Russian attacks in Bakhmut, with many

One day’s report is not enough to establish a pattern, but it may indicate that Russian forces are somewhat proactively slowing down in Avdiivka while resuming offensive activity around Chasov Yar, as ISW predicts

Since about April 20, Moscow forces have concentrated on achieving tactical victories near Ocheretino (northwest of Avdiivka) and Novokalinovo (north of Avdiivka), but as of April 30, the pace of advance is uncertain.

Moscow forces may decide to advance from the northern outcrop of Avdiivka towards Toretsk to supplement the offensive near Chasov Yar, which would likely force them to pause tactically to concentrate their forces in the main direction.

Chasov Yar is an important base because it will become a springboard for Russian troops to conduct offensive operations on Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka, which serve as protective fortresses for the Donetsk chain of four major cities.

However, Moscow forces will likely need a longer pause to reinforce existing units and redeploy additional forces to the Ocheretino region if they decide to attempt to advance north into the Toretsk region.

Russia's new move in Ukraine: `Big storm` about to break out in Toretsk?

War map of Ukraine at Avdiivka hot spot on April 28.

Notable comments in ISW’s April 30 report:

First, for the first time in several days, Russian troops made no confirmed advances in the Avdiivka area on April 30, while Ukrainian sources reported that Moscow forces carried out multiple attacks

Second, Russian troops may decide to advance from their positions north of Avdiivka toward Toretsk to support offensive operations in the Chasov Yar area, which would likely cause Moscow forces to pause.

Third, Russian sources confirmed that on the night of April 29-30, the Ukrainian army attacked targets in Crimea with the MGM-140 ATACMS short-range tactical missile system.

Fourth, Russian troops have recently made confirmed advances near Kremennaya, Chasov Yar and Robotino.

Thursday, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on April 30 that Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and First Deputy Minister of Defense Ruslan Tsalikov inspected a drone testing site in

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