(Dan Tri) – After the plane believed to be carrying Wagner tycoon Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed and no one survived, experts commented on the future of the Russian private military company without its leader.
Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and members of the Wagner force (Photo: Reuters).
On August 23, a plane believed to be carrying tycoon Prigozhin and a number of Wagner’s senior commanders crashed in the Tver region, Russia, killing all 10 people on board.
To date, there is still no official information about the fate of Wagner’s leadership, although President Putin on August 24 sent his condolences to the `Wagner members` who died in the plane crash.
Big losses
In the scenario where tycoon Wagner does not survive, Business Insider believes that Wagner will face an unprecedented period of instability – even more so after the failed rebellion at the end of June that caused the private military group to decline.
However, according to expert Simon Miles from Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy (USA), while it is still very early to accurately predict Wagner’s future, it is unlikely that this private military corporation will
According to Mr. Miles, Wagner’s activities in the areas where the group is present are still ongoing.
The scene of the crash of the plane that was supposed to be carrying Mr. Prigozhin (Photo: Russian Investigation Committee).
After the rebellion, Wagner transferred its forces to Belarus and the group still operates in Africa – where it is said to have earned a lot of money from mercenary, consulting, and mining activities for several years.
If Mr. Prigozhin is no longer there, the future of the network that Wagner has built in Africa and the Middle East or who will control the group’s operations and finances will become a big question.
What does the future hold for Wagner?
According to expert Catrina Doxsee at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), it is unlikely that Russia will abandon the Wagner model because the group’s activities are said to have brought influence to Moscow in Africa.
The Kremlin has repeatedly said that Wagner is a private military company and operates independently under contract, not related to the Russian government.
However, Wagner’s increased presence in Africa and the Middle East in recent times is considered to also bring Russia benefits in areas where sympathy for Moscow is relatively high.
Owner of private military corporation Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin (Photo: Getty).
Mr. Doxsee said that no network based in Russia has achieved the mark that Wagner has in Africa, so Moscow is less likely to destroy what it has, because it will be difficult to rebuild relationships.
There is also evidence that Wagner’s influence in some countries such as Mali has grown even after the June rebellion, showing the group’s potential.
Mr. Miles said that, after the news of the plane crash, the Wagner network seemed `pretty quiet,` meaning that Mr. Prigozhin’s absence probably would not have too much of an impact on their operations.
`A lot of important decisions are still made by him, but Prigozhin is not the only person in command of the group’s activities,` Mr. Miles said.
However, if Mr. Prigozhin and his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin were really killed in the plane crash, this would impact Wagner in terms of power and brand.
Expert Kateryna Stepanenko from ISW (USA) said that Mr. Prigozhin and Utkin are the `faces` of Wagner and their absence will have a strong impact on the command structure and Wagner brand.
Experts also mentioned the possibility that Wagner may have a new leader to replace him.
Video of the moment the plane suspected of carrying boss Wagner crashed
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