Mistakes in Western strategy in Ukraine

(Dan Tri) – The biggest mistake Western governments made in Ukraine was probably thinking that time was in their favor, according to Straits Times.

The West misjudged the scale of the war in Ukraine and often made late decisions (Illustration: Getty).

When Russia launched its military offensive against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, no one believed that Ukraine could survive after a few weeks.

However, as the war enters its third year, international support for Ukraine appears to be waning.

Providing weapons to Ukraine is currently a deeply divisive political and partisan issue in the US, leaving Congress almost paralyzed.

Although most Europeans still support Ukraine winning the war, a widespread survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) recently found that only 10% of European voters believe that

It is too early to conclude that Ukraine is losing this conflict, but it is clear that if Ukraine does not receive large quantities of new weapons in the next few months, the country will struggle to continue the war.

So what happened to the West’s initially successful strategy of supporting Ukraine?

The Straits Times newspaper analyzed some of the factors leading to Western mistakes in Ukraine.

Mistake from the start

Ukrainian soldiers unload a shipment of weapons donated by the US at an airport on the outskirts of Kiev in 2022 (Photo: Reuters.

When US intelligence agencies tracked Russia’s moves from the beginning, even accurately predicting the day Moscow attacked Ukraine, what Western governments had to do was provide weapons to Ukraine in a scenario

However, the West plans a much smaller-scale campaign with options such as establishing a Ukrainian government in exile and moderately arming resistance movements in Ukraine.

In fact, the Russian military campaign initially failed to achieve its goals while Ukraine surprised with its resistance, making all the Western preparations meaningless.

When they (the West) realized they were facing the most serious conflict in Europe since World War II, they were forced to change strategy.

The US and Europe initially refused to supply artillery to Ukraine, only to give in and then provide artillery barrels.

Every weapon system Ukraine needs has finally arrived, but often only after missing the opportunity to make a real difference on the battlefield.

Coupled with this is the US view that although Ukraine should have enough weapons to defend itself, it would not have the military capacity to attack Russian territory.

This approach is understandable: giving Ukraine the right to bomb Russia could lead to a Russian nuclear retaliation and as US President Joe Biden has said: `America will not enter World War III in Ukraine`

However, this approach meant Ukraine fought with its hands tied: It could only attack Russian forces on Ukrainian territory instead of taking the fight into enemy territory.

Biggest mistake

The third year of the war may be disappointing for Ukraine (Photo: AFP).

According to the Straits Times, perhaps the biggest mistake Western governments make is assuming that time is in their favor.

A similar alliance also continuously supports Ukraine with everything not just weapons but also access to cyber capabilities, drones and all the financial support needed to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat.

Since Russia’s economy is no larger than that of a medium-sized country in the European Union, it is assumed that, sooner or later, Russia will have to withdraw its troops from Ukraine.

However, that assumption was wrong.

The Western approach also fails to take into account Russia’s resilience and ingenuity.

After that, other events intervened to distract attention, from former US President Donald Trump emerging as a viable candidate to the war in the Gaza Strip.

However, that does not mean that Ukraine has lost hope of turning the situation around.

According to experts, Russia’s casualties and losses after two years of conflict are also very large.

Theoretically, it is still possible that US President Joe Biden’s administration will receive congressional approval for a new military aid package for Ukraine and Europe that will send more weapons to Kiev.

`To facilitate continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will need to change the way they talk about the conflict,` said Mark Leonard, head of ECFR.

The problem is that there is no evidence that any Western country is willing to invest more than they have pledged, so the third year of this conflict could turn out to be one of frustration