(Dan Tri) – With the lowest birth rate in the world, South Korea may not have enough population to maintain the strength of the armed forces in the context of increasing tension on the Korean Peninsula.
South Korean troops march during the 75th anniversary of Korean Armed Forces Day in Seongnam in September 2023 (Photo: Reuters).
South Korea currently maintains a standing army of about half a million troops due to wariness of North Korea.
`With the current birth rate, the future is predetermined. Force reductions are inevitable,` said Mr. Choi Byung Ook, professor of national security at Sangmyung University.
Mr. Choi pointed out that to maintain current troop levels, the Korean army needs to recruit or conscript 200,000 soldiers/year.
But in 2022, the country will have less than 250,000 babies born.
Women are not required to enlist in the military in South Korea and women who volunteer to serve only make up 3.6% of the current force, according to the South Korean Ministry of National Defense.
Meanwhile, the annual number of newborns is forecast to decline even further, to 220,000 in 2025 and 160,000 in 2072, respectively, according to Statistics Korea.
North Korean soldiers parade in Pyongyang in 2017 (Photo: AFP/Getty).
Take quantity compensation technology
Experts say that South Korea must rely on science to defend against North Korea and turn the human resource crisis into a technological transformation.
Chun In Bum, former Lieutenant General of the Korean Army, said: `Korean defense agencies have long had the policy of shifting from a manpower-centered army to a technology-oriented army.`
In 2005, the Korean Ministry of National Defense announced a plan to develop the military with science and technology at the center by 2020, but progress to date has been limited.
`Even though it tries to convert, the military has no motivation to do it because with Korean conscripts… human resources are still very abundant,` Mr. Choi said.
But Russia’s war in Ukraine has proven that on the modern battlefield, numbers are not enough.
South Korea has been focusing on integrating new technology into its combat units.
South Korea’s Defense Ministry said last year it would carry out a phased transition to a manned and unmanned combined combat (MUM-T) system leveraging AI.
South Korea is also developing unmanned military equipment, including medium-range unmanned aerial vehicles (MUAVs) and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs).
South Korean people observe the launch of a North Korean satellite-carrying rocket (Photo: AFP).
Soldiers are still indispensable
However, experts say that the human factor is still at the heart of the military.
`We need to improve our mobilization system, where we can access a large reserve force,` Mr. Chun said.
After Korean men complete their mandatory military service for 18-21 months, they become reserve soldiers.
This system currently helps South Korea have 3.1 million reserve troops.
South Korea is piloting a mechanism to train a number of reserve soldiers for 180 days/year to strengthen their skills.
Another option is to increase the number of professional officers.
The Korean army may move to increase recruitment of women in the context of a shortage of men, but this is still a controversial issue (Photo: Reuters).
But this plan encountered the problem that people were not excited.
According to data from the South Korean Ministry of National Defense, the number of applicants for non-commissioned officer positions has decreased over the years, from about 30,000 in 2018 to 19,000 in 2022.
`The army is having great difficulty recruiting excellent professional non-commissioned officers, who in 10-20 years will constitute an excellent officer corps,` Mr. Choi said.
The South Korean military may also move to increase recruitment of women.
Mr. Choi believes that requiring women to enlist in the military could solve South Korea’s problem, but there are too many obstacles.
`There are many different complicated factors such as social costs and women having children, so I think this method does more harm than good,` he said.
But Mr. Chun still believes that attracting female volunteers is feasible if the income level is attractive enough.
`With a salary of 2,000 USD/month, it would be a very good job. Because for the same job in real life, a woman might only be paid 1,500 USD,` the expert said.
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